Gas: a four year high.
Up 88% since July.
UK gas prices jumped 4% on 9 September to their highest since 2022. They are up 88% since the start of July. Storage is at a 13 year low for the time of year. The January price cap is being calculated on these numbers right now.
🌍 Why
The Middle East. US strikes on tankers in the Gulf of Oman, Iranian missiles at a base in Jordan, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Oil back above $100 a barrel.
Europe went into the summer with storage low and burned gas through five heatwaves. UK storage was around 49% full. Europe 67%.
Petrol is up 4.4p a litre since 1 September. Diesel 4.1p. Gas is the same story in a different tank.
📅 Why this month matters most
Ofgem sets the January cap using wholesale prices from mid August to mid November. September is the middle of that window.
Winter gas contracts are trading above 200p a therm. Every week they stay there adds to January.
Forecasts before this spike already had January at £1,872 to £1,970. Expect the next round higher.
🏠 What is in your control
Gas heating: flow temperature down to 55C on a combi, radiators balanced, thermostat one degree lower. Boring, effective, free.
Electricity: the wholesale price at 6pm is set by gas plants. The price at 1pm on a sunny day is set by solar. Move what you can from one to the other.
Fix if you find one 8% or more below the cap. The market is telling you January is worse.
A war three thousand miles away is being written into a bill that arrives in January. You cannot change the price of gas. You can change how much of it is burned on your behalf at 6pm.