Oil is up 55% in a month. Not because we found less of it. Not because we started using more of it. Mostly because of what one person has been posting on social media. And yes. It affects your energy bill.
🤔 First things first. What is Truth Social?
Truth Social is Donald Trump's version of Twitter. He built it after getting banned from the real Twitter. He posts on it constantly. Usually in capital letters. Usually at 6am.
Normally this would not matter. Annoying, maybe. But fine.
The problem is that Trump also controls the US military. So when he posts about a war, oil traders worldwide read it and immediately buy or sell billions of pounds worth of oil. The price moves within seconds. That price eventually lands on your energy bill.
How a post on a phone becomes a bill through your door
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Trump posts something about Iran
Could be a threat. Could be a peace deal. Could be both on the same morning.
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Oil traders worldwide read it. Immediately.
Thousands of traders buy or sell oil futures within seconds. Billions change hands. The oil price jumps or crashes.
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UK gas prices follow oil prices
In the UK, electricity is priced by gas. Gas is priced by oil. Oil is priced by the post. That is genuinely how this works.
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Ofgem uses these prices to set your cap
Every quarter, Ofgem averages out what gas cost recently. March and April prices go directly into the July cap. Right now. This week.
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Your bill goes up in July
Current forecast: £1,641 now. Around £1,800 from July. A £159 annual rise. Caused, in part, by posts on a phone.
The posts. The prices. What actually happened.
Brent crude oil ($/barrel) with Truth Social posts marked
Price up after post
Price dropped after post
8 March 2026Oil hit $116 that day
Truth Social post
"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!"
The message: relax, it will all be fine. Oil responded by briefly hitting $120 a barrel. The last time it was that high was Russia invading Ukraine in 2022.
"I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS..."
Brent fell from $112 to $99. 13 million barrels traded in 60 seconds. Iran then said publicly there were no conversations. Prices went straight back up.
⚠ The suspicious part
Bloomberg found 6 million barrels of oil futures were sold in the two minutes before the post. Normal volume at that time is 700,000 barrels. Someone sold 8 times the usual amount just before oil crashed. A separate $500 million bet was placed before another Trump announcement. Both are under investigation.
"...blowing up and completely obliterating electricity plants, oil facilities and possibly desalination infrastructure..."
Oil is up 55% in March. Its biggest monthly rise since the Gulf War in 1990. The April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is in 6 days.
The Strait of Hormuz. A 21-mile gap. 20% of world oil.
The UK imports very little oil directly from the Middle East. But energy is sold on a global market. When 20% of world supply disappears, prices go up everywhere. Including here. Within hours.
On 4 March, Qatar declared force majeure and halted gas shipments to Europe. Qatar is one of the UK's main gas suppliers. UK wholesale gas is now up 88% in 30 days.
The Bank of England cancelled its planned interest rate cut on 19 March. It now expects inflation at 3 to 3.5% for summer 2026. Up from 2% before the war started. House of Commons Library →
Your annual energy bill. Before and after all this.
You cannot stop the war. You cannot fix the Strait of Hormuz. You cannot make Trump put his phone down.
What you can do is make your home earn money from the grid. The National Grid pays households to shift when they use electricity. The higher prices go, the more it pays. FlexMyPower connects your smart devices to that scheme automatically.
Our estimated earnings for 2026 have already gone up because of the current market. The worse it gets out there, the better the payment. Not ideal. But it is something.