The July price cap is being set
right now. Using today's prices.
Ofgem announces the July cap in late May. But the calculation uses wholesale energy prices from March and April. Which means what happens in markets this week directly affects what lands on your bill in July.
📅 How does the cap calculation work?
Ofgem uses a rolling average of wholesale gas and electricity prices, weighted towards the most recent months before the new cap period starts.
For the July cap, March and April prices carry the most weight. Ofgem will confirm the July figure by 27 May 2026.
Gas prices in March were elevated due to the Middle East supply disruption. April is looking similar. Cornwall Insight currently forecasts the July cap at around £1,972 per year.
📈 What does £1,972 actually mean?
It means a £331 increase in a single quarter. April to July. That is roughly £28 more per month landing on your direct debit in July.
It would also make July 2026 the highest cap since the peak of the 2022 energy crisis. Which most people thought was a once-in-a-generation event.
It is a forecast. Forecasts can be wrong. But they can also be wrong in both directions.
💡 What this means for flexibility
The National Grid pays more for flexibility when wholesale prices are high. because that is when shifting demand saves the grid the most money.
If the July cap is as high as forecast, the grid will be calling on flexible households more often. and paying more per call. FlexMyPower earnings estimates will be revised upward.
The worse the market gets for bill payers. the more it pays to be flexible.