October cap forecast: £1,729.
A three year high.
Cornwall Insight published its final forecast for the October price cap on 19 August. £1,729 a year for a typical household, up 4%. That is with the VAT cut already counted. Without it the rise would be closer to 6%.
📊 The forecast
Electricity 26.57p a unit. Gas 7.90p a unit. The gas number is the one doing the damage.
Wholesale winter prices are at their highest in almost four years. European gas storage is at historic lows for the time of year. The heatwaves burned gas for cooling. Norwegian outages and Asian LNG demand did the rest.
🧾 Why VAT did not fix it
The VAT cut is worth about £45. The wholesale rise is worth more than that. One is a policy, the other is a market, and the market is bigger.
Cornwall Insight said it in one line: the VAT removal is outweighed by wholesale rises.
🏠 What you can still do
A fix, if it is more than 5% below the cap. Some are. Check the exit fees.
Move electricity use off the 4pm to 7pm peak. On a time of use tariff that is worth more than the VAT cut. On a standard tariff the grid will pay you for it directly this winter.
Gas is the harder one. There is no cheap hour for gas. Insulation and a lower flow temperature are the only levers.
Ofgem confirms the number on 26 August. It will be within a few pounds of £1,729. The forecast is rarely wrong at this stage. The market has already decided.