October cap: £1,723.
Gas up 9%. Electricity flat.
Ofgem confirmed the October to December price cap on 26 August. £1,723 a year for a typical dual fuel household paying by direct debit, up £60. Ofgem calls it 4%. The arithmetic says 3.6%. The interesting part is how unevenly it lands.
📊 The rates from 1 October
Electricity 26.32p a unit, up from 26.11p. Standing charge 54.83p a day, down from 57.19p. That already includes zero VAT.
Gas 7.97p a unit, up from 7.33p. That is 8.7%. Standing charge 29.68p a day, up from 29.04p.
Gas bills rise about 8%. Electricity only households rise under 1%. If you heat with gas this is a real increase. If you heat with a heat pump it is barely anything.
🌍 Why
Wholesale prices rose 11% over the three months Ofgem measured, driven by the Middle East. Without the VAT cut the rise would have been about £45 higher.
It is still 52% below the 2022 crisis peak of £2,500. About 11 million households on fixed deals are not affected at all.
🔮 January
Forecasts for January 2027 already range from £1,872 to £1,970. Every forecaster has it going up again, by 9% to 12%.
That is the number to plan around, not October.
🏠 What to do
Cheapest fixes at the start of September were 8% to 11% below the October cap. If you are on a standard tariff, look.
The Warm Home Discount is £150 for about six million households this winter. Check if you qualify.
And the thing this site keeps saying: the 5pm to 8pm hours cost more than any other. Shift what you can. Get paid for it where you can.
£60 a year sounds manageable. It is the third rise in a row, gas is doing all the work, and January is already pencilled in higher. The cap is a floor that keeps moving up. Your usage pattern is the only part you control.