Tuesday morning. Trump posted that "a whole civilization will die tonight" unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz by 8pm. He threatened to bomb power stations and bridges. Congressional Research Service Oil hit $117 a barrel. Everyone panicked. Except the professional investors, who made a cup of tea and waited.
At 6:30pm US time, ninety minutes before his own deadline, Trump announced a ceasefire. Oil fell 15% in two hours. He posted "Big money will be made!" He ended with three exclamation marks. The Golden Age of the Middle East has apparently begun. EIA
There is a word for this. TACO. Trump Always Chickens Out. Coined by Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong in 2025 after Trump announced tariffs on every country on earth, watched markets crash, and quietly postponed them for 90 days. A pattern had been identified. Traders started betting on it. Ofgem itself notes that energy markets respond immediately to geopolitical signals. The signals in this case were on Truth Social. At 6am. In capitals.
By Tuesday afternoon, traders had already priced in the backdown. The S&P 500 closed positive despite the "whole civilization dies tonight" post. The market thought it was funny. EIA
| When | The threat | What actually happened |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | Tariffs on every country on earth | 90-day pause after bond markets had a meltdown IMF |
| Jun 2025 | Sack the Federal Reserve Chair | Reversed after stocks fell Federal Reserve |
| Jan 2026 | Annex Greenland by military force | Did not annex Greenland European Council |
| Mar 2026 | Seize the Strait of Hormuz militarily | No action. Talks began. CRS |
| 7 Apr 2026 | Destroy a whole civilisation by 8pm CRS | Ceasefire posted on Truth Social at 9pm EIA |
Here is the part nobody wants to say out loud. The TACO cycle is not just incompetence. It is extremely good for anyone who can see it coming and trade ahead of it.
The pattern is simple. Trump escalates. Oil spikes. Certain traders are already positioned long on oil futures. Trump backs down. Oil falls. Those same traders sell their positions at the peak. The gap between $73 and $95 gets permanently absorbed into everyone's energy bill. Ordinary people pay. Commodity traders collect. EIA
Oil went from $73 to $117 during the escalation. It fell back to $95 on the ceasefire. That is a $22 permanent floor added to the oil price. Every barrel of oil is now $22 more expensive than before the war started. That feeds through to UK gas prices. UK gas prices feed through to your electricity bill. Your electricity bill feeds through to your bank account. Ofgem
Trump posted "Big money will be made!" immediately after the ceasefire. He was not wrong. He just was not talking about your money. EIA
Strait data: IEA · EIA · Congressional Research Service
Gas sets the price of UK electricity the large majority of the time. Even with a heat pump and an EV, your electricity tariff is still priced against gas. So when the Strait closes and gas spikes, your bill goes up. Every time. No exceptions. Ofgem The UK also imports LNG from Qatar, which exports through the Strait. EIA ONS
Ofgem calculates the July cap using gas prices from February and March. That is the war period. That window is closed. The calculation is done. A ceasefire posted on Truth Social at 9pm on a Tuesday does not reopen it. Ofgem
Iran is planning to charge ships for Hormuz passage going forward. Like a toll booth on the world's biggest oil lane. That did not exist before February. Even if the war fully ends, this is a new permanent cost baked into global energy prices. IEA
While all this is going on, the National Grid is paying households to shift when they use their electricity. Not use less. Just at slightly better times. Your EV charges at 2am instead of 6pm. Your hot water heats while you sleep. You wake up to money in your bank account. NESO That is FlexMyPower.
Based on NESO Demand Flexibility Service winter 2024/25, 44 events, avg £210/MWh. NESO
Up to £730 total value this year including bill savings from smart timing. NESO That number goes up when the market is stressed. Which it is. Right now.
Your July bill is going up. Start earning before it does.
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- Ofgem — Energy price cap explained: April 2026 at £1,641
- Ofgem — Changes to energy price cap April to June 2026
- Ofgem — Wholesale energy costs and your bills
- Ofgem — Wholesale market indicators
- ONS — Impact of higher energy costs on UK businesses: gas sets electricity price the large majority of the time
- IEA — Strait of Hormuz: 20 million barrels per day, 20% of global oil trade
- EIA — Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint
- EIA — About one-fifth of global LNG trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz
- Congressional Research Service — Iran Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz: Impacts on Oil, Gas and Other Commodities
- NESO — Demand Flexibility Service: winter 2024/25 results
- House of Commons Library — Gas and electricity prices during the energy crisis and beyond
- IMF World Economic Outlook — Global economic impact of commodity price shocks
- Federal Reserve — Federal Reserve monetary policy communications
There is a name for this. TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out. Coined by Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong in 2025. Every time Trump announced a major threat, markets moved — and then he reversed. Ofgem notes that hedging and market pricing cause immediate responses to geopolitical signals. By Tuesday afternoon, markets had already priced in a backdown — the S&P 500 closed positive despite the threats. EIA
| When | The threat | What actually happened |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | Tariffs on every country | 90-day pause after bond markets moved IMF WEO |
| Jun 2025 | Sack the Federal Reserve Chair | Position reversed Federal Reserve |
| Jan 2026 | Annex Greenland by military force | No action taken European Council |
| Mar 2026 | Seize the Strait of Hormuz militarily | No action taken, talks began Congressional Research Service |
| 7 Apr 2026 | Destroy a whole civilisation tonight CRS | Ceasefire. 90 mins before deadline. EIA |
Strait data: IEA · EIA · Congressional Research Service
Gas sets the price of UK electricity the large majority of the time. Even if you have a heat pump and an EV, your electricity tariff is still priced against gas. So when the Strait closes and gas spikes — your bill goes up. Every time. Ofgem The UK also imports LNG from Qatar, which exports through the Strait. ONS
Ofgem calculates the July cap from gas prices in February and March — the war period. That window closed before last night. The July cap is already set. Ofgem A Pakistani phone call at 9pm cannot change it.
Iran says it will now charge ships to use the Strait of Hormuz — like a toll booth on the world's biggest oil lane. That did not exist before February. Even if the war ends, this could keep energy prices elevated for years. IEA
The National Grid pays households to shift when they use their electricity. Not less of it. Just at slightly better times. Your EV charges at 2am. Your hot water heats overnight. You wake up with money in your bank. NESO That is FlexMyPower.
Based on NESO Demand Flexibility Service winter 2024/25, 44 events, avg £210/MWh. NESO
Up to £730 total value this year — earnings plus bill savings. NESO That number goes up when the market is volatile. Which it is. Right now.
Will the ceasefire lower my energy bill?
No, not for July. The July 2026 cap was calculated from gas prices in February and March — the war period. That window closed before the ceasefire. Ofgem announces on 27 May 2026. Could only affect October 2026 onwards. Ofgem
Why does a war near Iran affect my electricity bill?
Gas sets the price of UK electricity the large majority of the time. Ofgem The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil and LNG trade daily. IEA When disrupted, gas prices rise globally and feed through to your bill.
What is the UK energy price cap for July 2026?
Not yet confirmed. Ofgem announces on 27 May 2026. Forecast approximately £1,930 per year for a typical household, up from the current £1,641. Driven by wholesale gas price increases from the Iran conflict. Ofgem
How can I earn money from the National Grid?
Through the Demand Flexibility Service run by NESO. Households with smart devices — EV chargers, heat pumps, hot water tanks, home batteries or smart plugs — earn money by shifting when they use electricity. FlexMyPower automates this. No switching. Free to join. NESO
What does TACO mean in relation to Trump and energy prices?
TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. Coined by Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong in 2025. Trump announces a massive threat, markets react, he reverses. On 7 April 2026, oil hit $117 on a threat to destroy Iranian infrastructure, then fell 15% when Trump announced a ceasefire 90 minutes before his own deadline.
Your July bill is going up. Start earning before it does.
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